The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has announced a record rise in the country’s per capita income, reaching $2,820 in the 2024-25 fiscal year. This figure, while statistically impressive, masks the daily hardships endured by millions of Bangladeshis grappling with high inflation, stagnant wages, and economic uncertainty.
Despite the optimistic headline figure, economists, industry insiders, and even cultural figures argue that the increase in per capita income is largely notional-an accounting result driven more by currency exchange rate adjustments than by actual improvement in the living standards of ordinary citizens.
“It’s a rise on paper, not in people’s plates,” said eminent musician and social commentator SR Khan Gagan. “Our per capita income might be up in statistical terms, but most families I meet are fighting just to survive. The essentials are out of reach for many, and the system feels tone-deaf to their struggle.”
Statistical Illusion: According to the BBS’s provisional estimates, the per capita income rose by $82 from the previous fiscal year’s $2,738. In contrast, the per capita income in FY22 was $2,793, meaning the new figure merely restores what was lost over the last two years-barely
offsetting inflationary shocks and currency depreciation.
The apparent gain in income comes primarily from a revised dollar exchange rate used in the calculations. The BBS used an average exchange rate of Tk 120.29 per US dollar in the latest calculation, compared to Tk 111.06 previously. This technical change inflated the dollar-denominated national income figure without a commensurate increase in actual income levels or purchasing power.
Economists warn against treating such statistical increases as indicators of real progress.
“What we’re seeing is a nominal adjustment driven by exchange rates, not an actual rise in people’s income,” said financial analyst Md Jahangir. “The reality on the ground is that people, especially those in low-income groups, are finding it harder and harder to manage the essentials of daily life.”
Inflation Overheating the Poor: According to government data, Bangladesh’s inflation rate has hovered around 9-10% for over a year, with food inflation exceeding 12% in several months. The impact has been devastating for the working class, who spend a majority of their income on essentials like rice, lentils, oil, and vegetables-items whose prices have skyrocketed.
In a bustling neighborhood of Mirpur, Dhaka, 38-year-old rickshaw puller Abdur Rahman shares a grim picture. “Three years ago, I could feed my family with Tk 400 a day. Now I need over Tk 800, and I still can’t buy meat or fish. If this is what they call rising income, I don’t understand their logic.”
Housemaids, garment workers, and small-scale vendors across urban and rural areas echoed the same concerns: wages have barely increased while living costs have surged beyond affordability.
“The truth is, many people now survive by borrowing or cutting meals,” said Jahangir. “An increase in statistical averages means nothing if it doesn’t translate into an improved quality of life.”
No Safety Net in Sight: Sajib Chowdhury, a stakeholder in the readymade garment (RMG) industry, one of Bangladesh’s largest employment sectors, believes the government must act urgently to prevent a humanitarian crisis among the poor.
“Increased per capita income figures don’t feed hungry stomachs,” he said. “The government must significantly increase the budgetary allocation for subsidies and social safety net programs. Otherwise, inflation will push more people into extreme poverty.”
His remarks follow similar sentiments expressed by NGOs and labor rights groups that are seeing increased migration to urban slums, growing dropout rates in schools, and a spike in malnutrition among children-symptoms of a declining economic environment for the bottom half of the population.
Chowdhury warned that the government’s silence on subsidies, especially in food and energy, is contributing to further marginalization. “We’ve had RMG workers come to the factory skipping meals. That’s a tragedy for any society, let alone one claiming record income levels.”
Inequality Widens: Bangladesh has seen notable GDP growth over the past decade, much of it driven by infrastructure spending, remittance inflows, and RMG exports. But this growth has disproportionately benefitted urban elites, business conglomerates, and politically connected groups.
While average income levels have risen, income inequality has widened. The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, has been rising steadily, suggesting that the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer.
“This per capita income figure hides the inequality,” said Dr. Naznin Ahmed, a development economist. “If one person earns Tk 10 lakh and nine people earn Tk 10,000 each, the average looks good, but the lived reality is one of inequality and injustice.”
A more accurate measure, she argues, would be to look at the median income-what the average person actually earns-and household consumption surveys, which reveal how stretched household budgets have become.
Reactions from Civil Society: SR Khan Gagan, who has long used music and performance to highlight social injustice, questioned the political motive behind the per capita income announcement. “This is a budget season headline. It makes it seem like things are improving under this administration, but everyone knows the truth. Even a child knows that the grocery bills don’t lie.”
He noted how cultural spaces and artists’ communities have also been hit hard, with funding drying up, audiences shrinking, and sponsors pulling out. “If this is a time of prosperity, why are artists begging for grants and children eating once a day?” His comments reflect a growing sense of disillusionment with national statistics that do not match public perception.
Budget Recommendations Ignored: Ahead of the 2025-26 national budget announcement, experts and civic groups have made repeated calls for a pro-poor budget that prioritizes food security, job creation, health, and education. However, several stakeholders worry that the upcoming budget will again focus on megaprojects and loan repayments at the expense of social spending.
“The government has a habit of announcing flashy budgets with large allocations for projects that don’t help the poor,” said Jahangir. “Where is the subsidy for rice, for oil, for school meals? Where is the cash support for those without work? It’s not enough to say the economy is growing-you have to show that people are living better.”
Dr. Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), recently remarked that the biggest risk facing Bangladesh today is not stagnation but “unequal recovery.”
“We are seeing a recovery, yes-but only for a section of the population,” she said. “Low-income families are falling behind. We need a major shift in budget priorities.”
Youth and Urban Poor at Risk: The disconnect between economic data and street-level reality is most visible among young people and the urban poor, many of whom face joblessness, rising debt, and mental health crises.
According to the latest Labour Force Survey, youth unemployment in urban areas remains high, especially among university graduates. Without access to capital or vocational training, many young people are either underemployed or jobless.
“Inflation is killing dreams,” said 25-year-old Nabila, a private university graduate who now tutors part-time to help support her family. “When my father lost his job last year, I thought we could manage. But now we’re borrowing money every month, and the stress is unbearable.”
Urban poverty is also becoming more visible, with slum populations swelling, especially in Dhaka, Chattogram, and Gazipur. NGOs report that more families are turning to informal lenders, pushing them into debt traps that further diminish their ability to recover.
The Dollar Illusion: One of the key criticisms of the per capita income calculation is its dollar-denominated format. While useful for international comparisons, the use of a rising dollar exchange rate artificially inflates the per capita figure even if people are earning the same or less in local currency.
“This year’s figure is Tk 339,834 in local currency-up from Tk 304,408 last year. That might sound like progress, but if the cost of essentials has doubled or tripled, people are actually worse off,” said Jahangir.
This dollar illusion, critics argue, diverts attention from real wage stagnation, declining productivity, and poor fiscal discipline.
Policy Disconnect: The government’s response to inflation and economic hardship has been widely criticized as inadequate. Fuel price hikes, rising utility tariffs, and indirect taxes have added to the burden on ordinary citizens.
Subsidies remain limited and often mismanaged. Cash transfers and food aid programs have been scaled down due to funding constraints and loan conditionalities imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“There is a fundamental policy disconnect,” said Chowdhury. “You can’t fight inflation with numbers. You fight it with targeted subsidies, increased wages, and investments in human development. Without that, your growth is hollow.”
Looking Ahead: With national elections expected in early 2026, there is growing pressure on the interim government to deliver a credible and compassionate budget in June. Observers say this is an opportunity to pivot away from vanity projects and focus on human-centric development.
SR Khan Gagan concluded his remarks with a warning: “If we keep chasing these GDP dreams while people are starving, there will be a reckoning. Artists, workers, students-we all feel the heat. Let the numbers match our lives, not mislead them.” As budget season approaches, policymakers face a stark choice: continue presenting a statistical mirage, or finally align economic planning with the everyday struggles of Bangladesh’s people.
