Bangladesh’s tea gardens are experiencing an upsurge in production and auction supply thanks to abundant monsoon rainfall. Experts and stakeholders are optimistic that if the trend continues, the industry can hit this season’s target production. Here’s an in-depth report on the factors fueling the growth, the auction dynamics in Chittagong, and what lies ahead.
Abundant Rainfall Drives Production Gains: Recent rainfall has significantly boosted tea output, particularly from May onward, according to the Tea Board’s Monthly Bulletin. From January to May 2025, a total of 12.61 million kg of tea was produced, compared to 11.468 million kg during the same period in 2024—a 10 percent rise. Notably, the month May alone saw 8.648 million kg, compared to 4.775 million kg in May 2024—an impressive 80 percent increase.  This spike is largely attributed to early, consistent rains, which accelerated tea growth.Auction Supply Escalates: 32.10 million kg Up for Sale: With higher production, tea auction brokers in Chittagong have received 32.10 million kg of tea over the first 10 auctions this season—up from 27.627 million kg at the same point last year.  This surge reflects confidence among producers. Anjan Deb Barman, Senior Manager at National Brokers, observed: “Gardens are sending more tea than expected in the auctions this year… sufficient rainfall…” 
Targets & Trends: Aiming for 103 million kg: The Bangladesh Tea Board has set a production goal of 103 million kg for the year. Last season came close, with 102.9 million kg produced against a 102-million-kg target. In contrast, 2024 saw only 93.42 million kg, missing the 108 million kg target by a wide margin due to erratic rainfall and low auction prices. This year’s weather, combined with supportive auction prices, signals a possible return to record-breaking performance.
Weather Bumps on the Road to Recovery: Despite the current positive trend, 2024’s production faced challenges from heatwaves and erratic rain, which affected yields and delayed plucking. Tea output fell to 93 million kg, down nearly 10 percent from the previous year.  Earlier this year, gardens struggled with drought conditions, with some areas in Sylhet receiving only 4 mm of rain from January to March—against a norm of 15–20 mm. This caused 40 percent of saplings and 10 percent of mature bushes to wither. Experts warn that climate change could make such erratic conditions more common, reinforcing the need for resilient systems. 
Auction Pricing & Export Outlook:  Earlier weather-linked supply dips pushed auction prices up. According to Business Standard, prices rose from Tk 171/kg in 2023 to Tk 204/kg during the first five auctions of 2025. High bids have encouraged gardens to increase supply.
On the export front, Bangladesh exported 2.45 million kg of tea in 2024, a 58 percent growth from 2023, earning Tk 45.96 crore.  The Tea Board projects that with higher production, exports could rise to 10 million kg this year.
Stakeholder Insights: Optimism Amid Caution: Anjan Deb Barman notes the combination of good rainfall and raised auction prices is buoying gardens. Dr. Pijush Dutta, Head (R&D), Tea Board, emphasized that focusing on quality along with quantity prevented full recovery in 2024. He also highlighted the impact of weather and labour strikes. Md Anisur Rahman, of Sreemangal Observatory, confirmed fluctuating rains and heatwaves have destabilized production cycles.
Professor AFM Saiful Islam of Sylhet Agricultural University stressed that Bangladesh lags in yield efficiency compared to India and Sri Lanka, and needs investment in climate-resilient varieties and irrigation.
Climate Risks: A Persistent Threat: Observers warn that global warming threatens tea production and workers’ livelihoods. In early 2025, Sylhet and Moulvibazar received only 4 mm of rain—vs 46 mm in 2024, and heatwaves destroyed bud growth and saplings. This caused domestic production from January–March to slump to 93 million kg, 10 million below target, threatening workers and families in the sector.
Adaptation & Investment Needed: Experts recommend: Investing in climate-resilient tea varieties (23 identified, but only one widely adopted so far). Improving irrigation and shade tree practices to buffer against drought and heat. Balancing quality and output to sustain auction prices and garden profitability. Strengthening institutional support from Tea Board, BTRI, and trade associations for modern farming methods.
The Path Forward: Growth with Resilience:  The current rainfall-driven revival appears promising: higher auction flows, better prices, and growing exports signal renewed momentum. But experts emphasize the need to view this as a launchpad, not a finish line. If gardens, supported by research institutions and backed by favorable policies, invest in climate-smart practices, Bangladesh could not just meet this year’s target but also build a more resilient and competitive tea industry—globally and locally.