Bangladesh’s families face mounting hardship as high inflation continues to erode purchasing power and push households deeper into food insecurity. New survey data show that, on average, about 55% of a family’s monthly expenditure is spent on food, leaving little room for non-food needs. At the same time, inflation in Bangladesh remains stubbornly high - above 8% - even as neighbouring countries register much lower rates, creating a widening gap in living-cost trajectories across the region.
Analysts, consumer groups and social researchers say the combined effect of elevated inflation, stagnant employment growth and changing consumption patterns is forcing poorer households to switch toward cheaper, calorie-dense diets - a coping strategy that raises long-term risks for nutrition and welfare while reinforcing demand pressures on staple foods.
“More than half of household budgets now go on food. That is an alarm bell for policymakers - when people have to spend this much on food, they are one shock away from crisis,” said Dr. Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). “We are seeing a dangerous combination: shrinking real incomes, stagnant job creation, and rising dependence on staples. That will keep prices high unless supply-side and market-governance issues are urgently addressed.” Daily Industry.
Breadline economics: 55% goes to food: The Power and Participation Research Centre’s (PPRC) mid-2025 national survey found that the share of household spending on food has climbed to roughly 55%, while poverty has risen and employment growth remains weak. The survey, discussed at a national dissemination event in August, paints a picture of squeezed household finances and elevated vulnerability among low-income groups.
PPRC’s findings echo smaller field studies and market surveys showing that lower-income families are cutting back on protein and other more
expensive food items while increasing consumption of rice and other starchy staples. That substitution raises per-capita demand for rice across the population at a time when millers and wholesalers have shown mixed responses on passing through global price declines to local markets. “When incomes fall, people eat more rice and less protein - this substitution alone can drive up the domestic price of rice even when global prices are soft,” Dr. Moazzem told Daily Industry.
Bangladesh’s inflation stubbornly high while neighbours cool: Official and private indicators show Bangladesh’s headline inflation remains elevated. Trading Economics reports Bangladesh’s annual inflation rate at about 8.17% in October 2025, modestly lower than earlier months but still high compared with regional peers. Meanwhile, India and Sri Lanka have recorded multi-year lows in consumer inflation in late 2025, and Pakistan’s inflation has also moderated relative to earlier surges - a divergence that highlights Bangladesh’s relative difficulty in easing price pressures.
“Other countries managed to bring headline inflation down through targeted measures, stable food supplies and effective price monitoring,” said Farah Naz Choudhury, a banking and markets specialist. “Bangladesh needs a coherent mix of short-term relief for households and medium-term reforms to market institutions.” Daily Industry.
Why food bills still high are: Several interlocking factors explain why food inflation - and especially the price of rice - has remained elevated in Bangladesh: Consumption substitution: As incomes compress, households raise rice consumption and cut out costlier calories, increasing aggregate local demand even when global prices fall.
Market governance and monitoring gaps: Traders, millers and wholesalers operate in a market with patchy oversight - allowing price dispersion and slow pass-through of falling costs to retail. Millers say their margins are squeezed, while wholesalers and retailers argue that operating costs and logistics keep prices up.
Distribution and transaction costs: Freight, handling, storage and last-mile distribution add to landed costs. Even government procurement prices show that imports can be competitive once logistics are accounted for - but the retail chain does not always reflect those savings.
Data and confidence problems: Some experts question the credibility of production and supply statistics, which complicates policy responses and weakens trust between farmers, millers and consumers.
K.M. Laek Ali, senior vice-president of the Bangladesh Auto Major & Husking Mill Owners Association, told Daily Industry: “Mills are releasing rice at reduced rates because paddy prices have fallen, but lack of monitoring allows some middlemen to retain higher prices. Proper oversight from procurement to retail is needed.” Daily Industry.
Poverty rising, jobs failing to keep pace: The PPRC survey also warns that poverty has climbed sharply in recent years - the study’s findings were discussed publicly in August - and that employment creation has not matched the need. When jobs are scarce and wages lag behind inflation, households cut non-food spending and focus on calorie security, making the country’s food system both more socially fragile and more demand-driven.
“When nearly 28% of the population is close to or below the poverty line and 55% of income goes to food, the margin for error is zero,” said Dr. Nazma Begum, a socio-economic researcher. “Policy must prioritise targeted cash transfers, expanded food safety nets, and measures to stabilise staple prices.” Daily Industry.
Policy options: short and medium term: Experts say a layered response is needed:
Short term: Expand targeted safety nets and cash transfers for vulnerable households to protect nutrition and avoid deeper poverty. Increase Open Market Sales (OMS) and make public procurement releases more visible so consumers see the supply response.
Ease private import rules quickly if domestic prices do not adjust - imports can provide immediate supply relief and create downward price pressure.
Medium term: Strengthen market monitoring and anti-hoarding enforcement from mill-gate to retail. Improve transparency in procurement and stock releases; publish detailed, frequent data on stocks and flows. Invest in rural employment and diversification to reduce excessive dependence on staple calories.
Commission a thorough, independent study to reconcile production, storage and consumption data so policy is based on reliable evidence. The policy mix must be carefully calibrated - relief for households now, and structural fixes for market failures later,” said Dr. Ahsanul Haque, an economist specialising in food policy. “Without both, the cycle of high food demand and stubborn prices will continue.” Daily Industry.
The human cost: For ordinary families, the arithmetic is stark. A household whose monthly spending is dominated by food has far less capacity to absorb medical bills, education costs, or shocks such as job loss. The PPRC and other surveys show that many families are cutting back on protein and other nutritious foods - a trend that undermines long-term human capital and health.
“We’re eating more rice, less fish and meat. Children get less variety. It’s cheaper now to fill the stomach but worse for health,” said a market shopper in Mirpur, speaking to Daily Industry. A cross-sector emergency: Bangladesh sits at a policy crossroads. Global commodity prices have eased and imports are available at competitive rates in many cases, yet domestic prices and food-expenditure shares remain troublingly high. Experts say an urgent combination of immediate household relief and stronger market governance is essential to prevent further deterioration in living standards. “This is not only an agricultural problem - it’s a macro-social problem,” Dr. Moazzem said. “If food inflation is not tamed and households’ incomes are not protected, we risk reversing years of poverty reduction.” Daily Industry.
