Currently, about 90 percent of Rakhine, including the Bangladesh-Myanmar border area, is under the control of the Arakan Army (AA), but the strategically important ports of Chakpyu and Sittwe are still under the control of the Myanmar army, and it has intensified air and naval attacks to protect them. If these two ports can be taken under its control, the entire Rakhine state will come under the control of the AA. The AA's long-term goal is to establish an autonomous or independent Rakhine state. Although the Myanmar government has declared the AA a terrorist organization, their administrative activities in Rakhine continue. The AA's political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), currently runs a parallel government in Rakhine. They have their own police and security structures, courts and judiciary, and administrative officials. The AA's political leadership has increased diplomatic activity regarding a possible new administrative structure and international recognition.
Rohingyas are fleeing to Bangladesh or leaving Myanmar due to their persecution in the areas occupied by the AAR. It is known that instead of stopping the persecution of the Rohingyas, the AAR is behaving more cruelly. Although the AAR openly talks about the freedom of the Rohingyas to practice their religion, it is known from the Rohingyas living in Rakhine that the AAR has interfered with their religious freedom. They are introducing measures to control religious institutions, which are contrary to religious freedom. At the same time, the AAR has also imposed restrictions on the movement of the Rohingyas living in Rakhine State. Since the Rohingyas have no means of earning a living and due to the restrictions on their movement, their livelihood has become uncertain.
In Rakhine, the AA is committing serious human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests of entire families, collective punishment, sexual violence, and confiscation of homes and assets. The AA is systematically destroying the economic base of the Rohingya through confiscation of their assets, forced evictions, and illegal and discriminatory taxation. The persecution of the Rohingya in areas controlled by the AA has spread fear among the Rohingya community. As a result, Rohingya are leaving Myanmar, and some are seeking entry into Bangladesh. If the current situation does not improve, this will negatively impact the repatriation of Rohingya. If the ULA wants justice and legitimacy, they must stop treating all ethnic groups living in Rakhine equally and stop abusing them.
Although the AA blamed the Myanmar junta government for the atrocities committed against the Rohingya, the Rakhine people and the AA were involved in the atrocities against the Rohingya. The AA spokesperson said that they are committed to ensuring the safe residence of all ethnic groups in the future Rakhine state. If the war situation normalizes, they will discuss with the Bangladesh government and take initiatives for peaceful repatriation under the mediation of the United Nations and ensure the basic rights of the Rohingya in Rakhine. They said that they will try the past genocide and torture in their own courts. The Rohingya problem will not be solved by simply restoring civil rights. The safe and dignified coexistence of the Rohingya in Rakhine must also be ensured. If the AA is sincere in solving the Rohingya crisis, they must come forward to solve this problem. However, in reality, the reflection of this mentality in the activities of the AA is not very clear.
In addition to their military power, AA is consolidating their political and economic power through an extensive drug economy. Since AA has no legitimate source of income and needs huge amounts of money to maintain control in Rakhine State, Yaba and Ice trafficking has become their main source of income. The organization uses this money to procure weapons, supply food and supplies, and run local administration, tax systems, and the judiciary. Yaba and Ice are smuggled through the Naf River and sea routes, of which about 80 percent enters Bangladesh by sea. AA is known to be directly involved in drug trafficking. According to a recent study, about 350,000 people in various parts of the country, including the hilly regions of Bangladesh, are directly or indirectly involved in drug and smuggling in various ways. Every month, about 400 to 500 million Yaba enter Bangladesh using the Naf River, sea routes, and approximately 65 points on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. In addition, they are accused of human and arms trafficking. Bangladesh has strengthened border security and intelligence surveillance to prevent illegal infiltration, drug and smuggling through the border. The incidents of drug recovery, smuggling of goods and landmine explosions in the Bangladesh-Myanmar border area are related to the expansion of influence in this area. It is known that these incidents arose from the conflict of dominance and economic interests between AA and their close business syndicates and various Rohingya armed groups. Three-way gunfire and mortar shell explosions between AA, ARSA and RSO often spread panic in the Bangladesh-Myanmar border area adjacent to Bandarban. These clashes are triggered by border control and occupation of smuggling routes. The powerful circle formed around drug and smuggling on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border has put Bangladesh's social stability and internal security under pressure. The Coast Guard and BGB are working to control illegal activities by conducting raids in these areas. However, it will not be possible to combat drug and terrorism by increasing the activities of law enforcement agencies alone. This drug network must be controlled with regional cooperation, integrated security strategies and strong state initiatives. Conflicts between armed groups over control of illegal trade in border areas are increasing, and this is having an impact on ordinary Rohingya. The aggressive activities of the AA continue in the Bangladesh border area as well. Mine explosions, small arms attacks and cross-border firing have now become almost regular occurrences. As a result, the border situation is becoming dangerous and the common people along the border are suffering from insecurity. The violence of the AA army is disrupting the normal life of the common people along the border. The safety of the lives and property of the common people has become uncertain due to the kidnapping of Bangladeshi fishermen and violation of water borders by the AA. Going to the sea for fishing has now become a death trap for fishermen, as a result of the infiltration of the AA in the Naf River and the kidnapping of fishermen, thousands of fishing families have become unemployed, their livelihoods are now facing complete destruction and the local economy, food supply and fisheries are facing serious losses. Bangladesh must act quickly to overcome this situation.
The conflict has disrupted the supply of essential goods to the Rakhine region. As a result, the AA has increased its activities at the border to deal with the food and financial crisis. Due to the lack of formal recognition, some essential goods including rice and oil are coming to Rakhine through the Mizoram border in India, which is not enough compared to the needs. The AA-controlled Rakhine business network is smuggling essential goods from Bangladesh to Myanmar by land and sea. In return, various drugs including Yaba are entering Bangladesh. Smuggling and drug exchange at the border has now become a major security risk. The AA is said to be interested in discussions with Bangladesh on important issues including resuming border trade with Bangladesh and ensuring stability at the border. If the AA establishes full control over Rakhine, the balance of power will completely change and it is expected that real progress can be made on trade, security issues as well as the issue of Rohingya repatriation.
In the current context, the AA must first stop the persecution of the Rohingya in the areas under its control in Rakhine. The Arakan Army must take initiatives to remove the distrust and fear of the Rohingya community towards the Rakhine community and remove the existing obstacles to the movement, livelihood, religious freedom and other human rights of the Rohingya.
At the same time, the AA must be more proactive in stopping the smuggling of drugs and weapons across the border and stop the kidnapping of fishermen from Bangladeshi waters. The AA can take measures to stop smuggling by discussing informal trade with Bangladesh and facilitating trade. Even if it does not gain full control of Rakhine, in the current situation, the AA can bridge the gap between the Rohingya and Rakhine populations in the areas under its control and ensure peaceful coexistence. If the differences between the Rohingya and Rakhine communities in Rakhine are eliminated, the Rohingya repatriation process will be easier in the coming days.
Brig. J. Hasan Md. Shamsuddin, NDC, AFWC, PSC, M.Phil (Retd.) Researcher on Myanmar and Rohingya
