The Middle East has long been a hotbed of global politics. Religious divisions, geopolitical rivalry and, above all, the greed and conflict of superpowers centered on the expansion of dominance over energy resources have repeatedly pushed this region to conflict. In recent times, the ongoing tensions surrounding Iran, Israel and the United States have put global security at new risk. According to analysts, if this conflict turns into a full-scale war, it will not be limited to the Middle East alone; rather, it will have a profound impact on the global economy, international trade and political balance.
In this context, the biggest concern is the oil market. 'Oil shock'-that is, a sudden jump in oil prices-has already become the focus of discussion around the world. If the war intensifies in the Middle East, there is a strong possibility that this shock will deepen. The Middle East accounts for a large portion of the world's proven oil reserves. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are the main hubs for global energy supply. A large amount of oil is transported to the international market every day, especially through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 percent of the global seaborne oil depends on this route. As a result, if security in this region is disrupted, the global supply system can suddenly collapse. When supply decreases, prices increase-this is the natural law of the market. And this sudden increase in prices creates an oil shock. There are precedents for this in history. During the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the oil embargo caused a terrible crisis in the global economy. Again, after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, instability arose in the oil market. The current global economy is already plagued by various crises. The impact of Covid-19 has not been fully overcome. On top of that, the war in Ukraine has put new pressure on the energy market. Europe has increased its dependence on the Middle East in its search for an alternative to Russian gas. In this context, a new conflict in the Middle East could become a 'double shock' for the global economy. The first blow of the oil shock hit the energy sector, but its impact spread everywhere. Transportation costs increase, international trade costs increase, resulting in rising commodity prices.
The agricultural sector is no exception-due to dependence on fuel for fertilizer production, irrigation, and machinery, food production costs increase and food security is threatened.
Now is the time for Bangladesh to take practical steps. It will be difficult to deal with this crisis without investing in renewable energy, exploring alternative sources, and improving efficiency in energy management. The oil shock is no longer just an economic issue; it has become a question of global security. If the conflict in the Middle East gets out of control, its impact will spread worldwide. Bangladesh will not be left out. Therefore, diplomacy, cooperation, and far-sighted policymaking are needed now. Otherwise, the oil shock caused by the fire of war in the Middle East could push the global economy into prolonged instability.
Inflation also increases rapidly. When the cost of industrial production increases, producers are forced to raise prices, which directly affects the lives of the common people. The lower and middle classes are the most affected. This situation is even more complicated for developing countries like Bangladesh. Being dependent on oil imports puts pressure on foreign exchange, reduces reserves, and increases the risk of currency depreciation. The country is already experiencing instability in the energy market, long lines at petrol pumps, and unreasonable price increases in the daily goods market. Oil shocks have not only economic but also political effects. Energy security then becomes a strategic priority for states. New polarization is created around expanding influence in oil-rich regions, and the global balance of power can change.
In addition, conflicts in the Middle East often take the form of proxy wars. In addition to Iran, Israel, and the United States, the involvement of regional powers including Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia further complicates the situation. As a result, even a limited conflict risks quickly escalating into a protracted war.
This reality raises the question-what is the alternative?
First, it is necessary to move quickly towards renewable energy. The use of solar energy, wind energy, hydroelectricity, and green hydrogen must be increased. This can reduce dependence on oil in the long term. Second, it is necessary to build strategic oil reserves. These reserves can be used to stabilize market supply during crises. Third, it is necessary to strengthen diplomatic initiatives.
A permanent solution to this crisis is not possible without establishing peace in the Middle East. Fourth, energy efficiency must be increased. It is possible to reduce energy demand by using energy-efficient technologies, developing public transport, and preventing waste.
Now is the time for Bangladesh to take practical steps. It will be difficult to deal with this crisis without investing in renewable energy, exploring alternative sources, and increasing efficiency in energy management. The oil shock is no longer just an economic issue; it has become a global security issue. If the conflict in the Middle East gets out of control, its impact will spread worldwide.
Bangladesh will not be left out. Therefore, diplomacy, cooperation and far-sighted policymaking are needed now. Otherwise, the oil shock caused by the fires of war in the Middle East could push the global economy into a long-term instability.
Professor, Department of Social Work, Rajshahi University and former Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences. u.ac.bd
