At a time when the BSF's push-in activities on the Bangladesh-India border are increasing, when Bangladesh's relations with neighboring India are hanging in the balance, and when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Indian acting high commissioner in Dhaka to protest the harassment of one of the prime minister's advisors at the Delhi airport, is Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's first foreign visit to China a sign of a new diplomatic twist?
It is well known that China is India's main rival in the region.
It is also known that the last visit of the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to China was just before the fall of the Awami League in August 2024 in the face of a coup, and she returned home after cutting short her visit. There is also talk in political circles that the failure of Sheikh Hasina's visit to China accelerated the pace of her fall.
Again, Sheikh Hasina's departure to India after being ousted and many other top, middle, and even junior leaders of the Awami League are now staying in India. Due to which, the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India hit rock bottom during the tenure of the interim government formed after the coup. Not only that, the incitement of some extremists from the two countries reached such a level that it seemed that a Bangladesh-India war would break out.
In such a situation, the BNP came to power in the 13th National Parliament elections held on February 12 with a two-thirds mandate from the voters. It was thought that since an elected government was in power, the tension with neighboring India would ease somewhat. At least the exchange of visas between the two countries would be normal. That process had already begun. There were even rumors that Tarique Rahman's first foreign visit as Prime Minister would be to India.
It cannot be emphasized that Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's first foreign visit is to China. Because, he first went to Malaysia. A country with which Bangladesh's relations are more business than political.
Moreover, Malaysia as a country is quite neutral or Malaysia has never been a big factor in Bangladesh's internal politics—as much as India, Pakistan, China and America are. Therefore, choosing a neutral and non-political country like Malaysia as the venue for his first visit is an indication of Tarique Rahman's far-sighted diplomacy—there is no doubt about it.
Another example of his or his government's diplomatic foresight is his visit to China on the same trip. That is, although officially his first trip is to Malaysia, he is going to China on the same trip. It is a bit of a dead snake, not a broken stick strategy. Because, if he had gone to China first, it might have caused discomfort for India.
The BNP government might not have wanted to create such discomfort in the first place. Secondly, by going to China as the second country on his first trip, Tarique Rahman or the BNP government might have wanted to send a message to India that Bangladesh no longer wants to be 'India-dependent' like it was in the past. In addition, the Prime Minister might have included China in his first trip so that India feels pressured to resolve the unresolved issues with Bangladesh or the issues that constantly create tension between the two countries.
Of course, it is not just about putting pressure on India, but everyone knows that China is interested in several other major projects in Bangladesh, including the Teesta project. If agreements and understandings are reached on these issues during the Prime Minister's visit, it can be considered a major achievement for the new government.
Because, there is currently no alternative to large foreign investments to overcome the economic fragility of the country during the interim government's tenure after the July coup. Domestic investment must also be increased.
Along with this, the crisis of import-export-dependent businesses and industries must be identified and resolved consistently. In addition, if a country like China is involved in multiple major projects, it will also create new employment opportunities and will be helpful in restoring dynamism to the country's economy.
It should be remembered that Tarique Rahman is visiting Malaysia and China at a time when tensions between the two countries have increased due to the BSF's push-in activities on the Bangladesh-India border.
The reality is that India has always considered itself more influential than all its neighbors. There is good reason to think so. But being ahead in size, population and military power does not mean that it should be watched over by its neighbors, but that every independent country should be given its due status; that it should maintain balance in diplomacy—a policy that India has never applied in the case of Bangladesh, and this is a long-standing complaint. Should Bangladesh then develop such a relationship with a third country that India feels that Bangladesh is not alone or weak?
Is Bangladesh moving forward with a strategy to resolve the existing problems between Bangladesh and India, including push-ins, border killings, and sharing of water from common rivers, so that India cannot impose its own decisions and choices and is forced to respect Bangladesh? Apparently, there is no alternative. Because, the tension between Bangladesh and India that has increased since August 5, 2024, does not depend solely on Bangladesh to overcome it.
The development of bilateral relations depends on both countries. When one moves forward, the other also has to move forward. But after the formation of a new government in Bangladesh, when relations with India were improving and the process of normalizing visa exchange between the two countries began, the BJP came to power in West Bengal and then push-ins on the border increased. There is no way to ignore the role of the Indian central government in this issue.
Are all those whom the BSF is trying to push in, real Bangladeshis? Pushing even those who are real Bangladeshis across the border is not respectful behavior. Rather, real Bangladeshis can be brought back through discussions through diplomatic channels between the two countries.
But who is Bangladeshi and who is not, it is subject to proof. Again, the way millions of people have been excluded from the voter list before the West Bengal assembly elections, under which conditions their Indian citizenship is being denied, is also behind the BJP's Hindutva politics.
Therefore, it is not easy for Bangladesh to fight with all these politics and win. On the contrary, the way the anti-India sentiment has increased and is increasing in Bangladesh after the July coup, the government should also be careful whether this pushes Bangladesh towards any new danger.
Many believe that no matter what the rationale behind India's push-in efforts, there is no reason not to understand that this is also a tactic to pressure Bangladesh. Therefore, to resolve this problem between India and Bangladesh, it may be necessary to involve not only bilateral talks, but also a third country, and since push-in is also a human rights issue, it may be necessary to involve the United Nations as well.
All in all, while there are questions about whether this can be called a 'China-oriented policy' as China is one of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's first foreign visits, there is no doubt that this is a long-term diplomatic strategy of his and his government. Its success will depend on what agreements and understandings are ultimately signed with China and how well Bangladesh's interests are protected there.
