The war between the US and Israel with Iran has been going on for two months. In the meantime, the first phase of the ceasefire has expired. During this ceasefire, Iran and the US even sat down at the negotiating table once. Pakistan was the mediator. But those talks were not fruitful, and the US has started a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz in protest of the Israeli aggression in Lebanon. There is also confusion about the second phase of talks. In this situation, it is natural to ask why Iran and the US are unable to reach an agreement. Although the answer to this question can be found in the straightforward terms of the two sides. Still, there are many other reasons behind it. One of the reasons is Israel. But the main reason is Iran and the United States themselves. In this situation of war, both sides have basically started considering the other side as weak. As a result, neither of them wants to make concessions. The United States has shown its military power by attacking Iran. But while showing this power, the inaction and distancing of US allies has been clearly visible. The whole of Europe is not on the side of the United States in this war. Rather, they have tried to work with Iran through different channels to protect themselves from the effects of the war. US allies in the Middle East and the Arab world are also somewhat on two sides. They are neither speaking out in favor of the United States nor against Iran. Rather, since the beginning of the war, when Iran was attacking its neighbors one after another, they have said that they will not allow their soil to be used to attack Iran. These countries, including Saudi Arabia, are mainly focused on protecting themselves from Iranian missiles. On the other hand, information from various international media outlets says that China and Russia, despite maintaining silence, are secretly supporting Iran. For them, it is profitable to prolong the war. If oil prices increase, the Russian economy will flourish. And the more the United States is cornered, the more China will capture the international market.
Meanwhile, Israel will never accept any agreement between the United States and Iran. Because, if these two hostile countries reach an agreement, the country that will suffer the most is Israel. In that case, their tendency to show 'cow strength' at the regional level will decrease. If Iran becomes economically and militarily strong, they may be eager to recover the areas occupied by Israel in the future. Even if they do not engage in direct conflict, anti-Israeli rebels and separatist groups in the region will receive support from Tehran. As a result, even Israel, the United States' biggest ally, is not involved in peace initiatives.
As a result, the United States is essentially alone in this war. Meanwhile, despite being severely beaten, Iran has shown in these two months that it is not one to give up. On the contrary, the more it is beaten, the more American interests and American allies in the Middle East will be damaged. Iran's attack has already disrupted the supply of oil and gas from that region. The whole world is having to pay the price. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown that it can hold the reins of the global economy.
For these reasons, Iran has now moved to the position of considering itself a strong opponent of the United States. And from this position, it is natural to have a mentality of not showing flexibility. Meanwhile, the United States has also proven through massive attacks that even if no one is on their side, they are number one in military power. As a result, the United States is also reluctant to make concessions.
But due to this stubborn stance of both sides, the world has fallen into a complex problem. The economy is weakening very quickly. The effects of this war have spread to every corner of the world. As time goes by, the life of every person in the world is becoming more difficult due to the war. As a result, everyone now sincerely wants the ice between the two sides to melt quickly, and they can calm down by signing a peace treaty. It's not that peace initiatives are not stopping. Pakistan is working hard to bring the two stubborn parties to the negotiating table. The allies of both sides are also providing support from behind. But Iran is reluctant to fulfill the biggest demand of the United States. They will not give up their nuclear program. After the war started, Iran has probably realized that they are actually a big party in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, they will want to compensate for the economic losses that Iran has accepted for so many years by establishing its rights in Hormuz. As a result, as time goes by, Iran's demands are getting bigger and stronger.
Meanwhile, the United States has been put in a somewhat precarious position due to a major shock to the global economy. US President Donald Trump is now facing protests in his own country over this war. Because the people of his country are not at peace either. Their daily lives are also becoming more difficult due to the increase in oil and gas prices. Also, it is not in the nature of the United States to suddenly withdraw from a war in which the United States has proudly engaged, 'rolling up the tail' means creating a grave for American arrogance. As a result, whether at the instigation of Israel or at its own insistence, the United States has been involved in this war, at least to some extent. Trump, who promised to 'make America great', is becoming a 'villain' day by day.
Now the question is, will the war not stop, will the two sides not be able to reach an agreement? Of course they can. In that case, both sides will have to make concessions. Iran may have to visibly rein in its ambitious nuclear program. The United States may have to accept Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz. In broad terms, if both sides agree to these two conditions, the path to a peace agreement will be much wider. But we must not forget that Israel is the biggest factor in this crisis. The United States has been in such a difficult situation because of their provocation. So, there is no way to think that Israel will easily allow this peace agreement to happen. In the meantime, we have seen how the Israeli forces have wreaked havoc in Lebanon after the ceasefire. The purpose was probably twofold - to create a 'buffer zone' by occupying some areas of Lebanon, which would make it difficult for Hezbollah to suddenly launch rockets into Israel; and the second was to break the ceasefire in any way. They succeeded. But under pressure from Trump, Israel was forced to go to a ceasefire in Lebanon. As a result, the fragile ceasefire with Iran has had the opportunity to complete its full term. Now we have to see which path Iran and the United States take after this ceasefire ends. If they engage in conflict again, then we must understand that the final process of disaster has begun for the entire world.
The author is the Senior Sub Editor
of Daily Industry
