Amid an increasingly turbulent global environment and mounting domestic challenges, Bangladesh’s economy is showing signs of deep distress, driven by falling investments and a cloud of political uncertainty. This was the central message of the 30th Annual Council of the International Chamber of Commerce, Bangladesh (ICCB), held recently in Dhaka. 
Chaired by Mahbubur Rahman, President of ICCB, the council was attended by an influential group of policymakers, diplomats, business leaders, and heads of prominent trade bodies.  
They raised alarm over a combination of global disruptions and internal instability threatening Bangladesh’s economic recovery and future growth prospects.
In his opening remarks, Mahbubur Rahman said: “The world is going through a complex period of geopolitical instability, climate crises, inflationary pressures, and rising nationalism. Bangladesh must prepare strategically to survive the tough road ahead. Unfortunately, our declining investment trend and prolonged political uncertainty have already begun weakening the economic foundations.”
A Warning Sign amid Global and Domestic Turmoil
The ICCB council laid out a grim macroeconomic backdrop both globally and nationally. According to its report, global economic growth is expected to stagnate at around 2.8% in 2025. The persistent Red Sea shipping crisis, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising instability in the Middle East, and heightened trade nationalism under a new Trump-led US administration are all contributing to major supply chain disruptions. The US-China trade war, in particular, poses serious risks for developing economies like Bangladesh, which depend heavily on export-led growth and stable access to global markets.
Back home, the economic challenges are even more daunting. GDP growth forecasts for FY 2024–25 have been sharply revised down by all major financial institutions: 
World Bank: 3.3%, International Monetary Fund (IMF): 3.8%, Asian Development Bank (ADB): 3.9%. These figures mark a significant downturn from the pre-pandemic growth rates of 6–7% that once characterized Bangladesh’s “miracle” economy.
Falling Investment: A Major Drag
ICCB’s most striking concern was the sharp fall in foreign and domestic investment. “In 2023, Bangladesh attracted just $3 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), whereas Vietnam received $39 billion,” noted ICCB Vice President Naser Ejaz Bijoy. “This gap highlights how far we are falling behind in global competitiveness.”
The council attributed this alarming trend to: Policy unpredictability, Slow approval and registration processes, Currency instability, Deteriorating infrastructure, Unaddressed corruption and weak regulatory enforcement.
Political instability-especially the prolonged unrest following the student-led movement of 2024-has further dampened investor sentiment. Several planned infrastructure and manufacturing investments have either been stalled or relocated.
Banking Sector: A Fragile Foundation
The banking sector, long identified as a weak link in Bangladesh’s economic architecture, has now reached a crisis point. ICCB highlighted that as of December 2024, total non-performing loans (NPLs) stood at a record Tk 3.45 trillion-or more than Tk 345,000 crore. Of greater concern is the capital shortfall across 19 banks, which now exceeds Tk 1.71 trillion (Tk 171,000 crore). The bulk of this crisis lies with state-owned banks, although private sector lenders are also showing rising levels of stress.
The ICCB praised the interim government’s recent reform initiatives-such as bank mergers, abolition of weak boards, and enhanced regulatory oversight-but warned that the credibility and pace of implementation will determine whether the system recovers or collapses further.
Export and Energy Security: Twin Challenges
At a time when Bangladesh is struggling to boost export earnings, global trade disruptions and local production issues are adding more strain. The ICCB’s analysis shows that key exports like garments, leather, and jute are vulnerable due to their high dependence on a few markets and the absence of high-end product diversification.
Simultaneously, energy security has become a mounting problem. With over 40% dependence on imported energy, and the depreciation of the taka against the dollar, fuel import bills are skyrocketing. To address this, ICCB urged the government to: Step up domestic gas exploration, Increase renewable energy investments, Reduce bureaucratic hurdles for energy project approvals.
Revenue Shortfall and Climate Vulnerability
The tax-to-GDP ratio remains abysmally low at just 10%, which is one of the lowest in Asia. The council identified this as a chronic weakness limiting the government’s capacity to finance development, subsidies, and social protection.
ICCB suggested a restructuring of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) with digital tools, simplification of tax procedures, and a crackdown on evasion.
Climate change was also discussed as a growing economic threat. Floods, droughts, salinity, and cyclones may reduce GDP by up to 2% annually, warned the council. Sustainable agriculture and climate-resilient infrastructure were emphasized as national priorities.
Cybersecurity and Digital Risks: As the economy becomes increasingly digitalized, cyber threats pose a new dimension of vulnerability. ICCB urged the creation of a comprehensive national cybersecurity framework, with legal tools and private sector collaboration to prevent attacks on banking, telecom, and digital payment systems.
US Tariffs and Geopolitical Tensions
The council also expressed concern about the proposed 35% import tariffs by the US, which, if imposed, could severely disrupt Bangladesh’s access to its second-largest export market. Furthermore, global tensions—especially a potential expansion of the Red Sea conflict or worsening US-China relations—could hurt shipping routes, insurance costs, and export logistics.
“The convergence of external shocks and internal instability is pushing us to a dangerous economic tipping point,” said BTMA President Shawkat Aziz Russell during the discussion. “Without urgent, coordinated, and confidence-building measures, our recovery will be delayed indefinitely.”
A Call for Confidence and Reform
In closing remarks, ICCB President Mahbubur Rahman made a strong appeal for political consensus, regulatory reform, and international cooperation. “Bangladesh has faced crises before. What we need now is confidence. Confidence among investors, businesses, consumers, and international partners. 
This cannot be achieved unless there is political stability, transparent governance, and a forward-looking economic strategy.”
Attendees and Guests
Among the notable attendees of the council were: Naser Ejaz Bijoy, ICCB Vice President, Mir Nasir Hossain, Former FBCCI President, Qutubuddin Ahmed, Industrialist, Anwar-ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), BGMEA leader, Aftab ul Islam, Former DCCI President, Mohammad Hatem, President of BKMEA, Shawkat Aziz Russell, BTMA President, Rajib H. Chowdhury, DCCI Senior Vice President, Javed Akhtar, FICCI President, Kamran T. Rahman, MCCI President, Saeed Ahmed, President of BIA, Mahmud Hasan Khan, President of BGMEA, Mohammad Fazlul Azim, Chairman of Azim Group.
Foreign dignitaries included: Haji Haris bin Haji Osman, High Commissioner of Brunei, U Kyaw Soe Moe, Ambassador of Myanmar, Maximiliano Romanello, Charge d’Affaires of Argentina, Varun Kumar Dey, ADB Senior Economic Officer. The ICCB Annual Council served as both a warning and a roadmap. While the prevailing tone was one of concern, the discussions laid out a path forward for economic stabilization. If Bangladesh can implement the needed reforms-revive investor confidence, strengthen the banking system, diversify exports, and ensure political certainty-it may still navigate through these turbulent times. Without bold action, however, the nation risks drifting further into an economic crisis marked by stagnation, rising unemployment, and declining global competitiveness.