Bangladesh’s increasing dependence on imported consumer goods is setting off alarm bells among economists and policymakers. An estimated 68 percent of the country’s food and consumer related import bill comes from just three countries - India, China and New Zealand - underscoring a worrying concentration of supply sources.
According to data from the national banks, Bangladesh imported US $2.11 billion worth of consumer related goods in 2024, up from US $2.014 billion in 2023. Of that total, 35 percent originated from India, 22 percent from China, and 11 percent from New Zealand.
The list of consumer goods being imported is long and growing. To meet domestic demand, Bangladesh now routinely imports more than ten categories of food and related items - lentils, wheat, maize, chickpeas, peas, dairy products, honey, and sugar among them. In fact, despite Bangladesh having sugar production capability, domestic output has fallen to the point where 100 percent of sugar is now import dependent. Growing Import Figures and Country Wise Breakdown: An examination of recent import flows reveals steep growth in certain categories: For the fiscal year 2022 23, from India alone Bangladesh imported rice worth about US $327 million, wheat roughly US $224 million, chickpeas about US $75 million, and dried chili about US $121 million. A few years later, in fiscal year 2024 25, imports increased further - rice:
US $456 million, sugar: US $120 million, onions: US $200 million, and dried chili: US $113 million from India. From China, during fiscal year 2023 24, imports included garlic US $145 million, ginger US $27 million, cumin US $7 million, and cinnamon US $12 million. For 2024 25 garlic imports rose by US $34 million, ginger imports by US $30 million, and cinnamon by US $9 million.
These figures reflect not just volume but also a shift in sourcing and increasing urgency of reliance on external supply for core food items.
Why the Surge in Imports: Experts attribute the rising reliance on imported goods to a confluence of factors: Declining domestic production & land base.
Bangladesh has seen reductions in arable or cultivable land, falling yields in some sectors, climate stresses and insufficient investment in agricultural productivity.
Non competitive domestic supply: Even where production capacity exists, farmers often face higher costs, weak logistics, fragmented value chains and lack of scale economies. In an interview, former World Bank chief economist Zahid Hussain told The Daily Industry.
“Not just Bangladesh - no country in the world has full production capacity for every product … Even if a country has capacity, it’s not rational to produce all goods locally. When production costs are high, importing at a lower cost to meet food demand is a practical decision.” en.bd-pratidin.com
Trade cost and sourcing advantages of neighbouring suppliers: India in particular remains a very significant supplier because of proximity, shared borders and existing trade/logistics routes. A Moneycontrol analysis observes that while China’s share in Bangladesh’s imports has grown, India remains the “major player.”
Diversification of supply chains still weak: Relying heavily on a few supplier countries increases exposure. The fact that 68 % of consumer goods imports come from only three countries is a sign of concentration risk, according to analysts. Expert Perspectives: Dr Mustafizur Rahman, Honorary Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD): “While imports are inevitable for many items, the growing scale of reliance on imports for basic food and consumer items is concerning. We must strengthen domestic production, particularly for staples such as rice, wheat, onions. At the same time we should broaden our supplier base.”
Dr Zahid Hussain: (as quoted above) highlighted that increasing imports may be efficient in the short term, but warns of over reliance leading to debt and food security risks. Economic impact: Vulnerability to supply shocks: Heavy dependence on imports makes Bangladesh vulnerable to global price swings, supply disruption, trade sanctions or currency shocks.
Widening import bills: As imports grow, the foreign exchange burden increases. Consumer goods import bills divert funds that could invest in agriculture or value added processing.
Domestic production stagnation: When domestic production is immature or inefficient, reliance on imports dampens incentive for investment, broadening the productivity gap. Strategic risk for staples: Items such as wheat, lentils, sugar, onions - which many assume are locally producible - if imported in large amounts reduce the ability to self sustain in food crises.
Trade concentration risk: With India, China and New Zealand supplying 68 % of these imports, Bangladesh faces supplier country risk and limited diversification.
Policy Challenges & What Needs to Be Done: Strengthen domestic production capacity. Investment is needed in agronomy, seed varieties, mechanisation, infrastructure (irrigation, storage) and value chains to boost output of crops like wheat, lentils, beans and sugar.
Encourage diversification of supply sources: Bangladesh should seek to broaden its supplier base beyond a handful of countries. This reduces risk of disruption and improves bargaining leverage.
Improve trade infrastructure and cost competitiveness: Enhancing ports, logistics, land port connectivity, reducing non tariff barriers and improving efficiency can reduce cost disadvantages of domestic production.
Balanced import strategy: While imports are sometimes the rational short term option, the longer term goal must be healthy mix of import + domestic. Monitoring import growth, setting sensible thresholds, and safeguarding key staples are needed.
Strengthen data and monitoring: Transparent tracking of import flows, production deficits, and supplier country concentration is vital - as the recent study and media coverage show.
Bangladesh’s consumer goods import landscape reveals a country gradually shifting toward increased dependence - a trend that carries economic, strategic and food security implications. While imports from India, China and New Zealand meet pressing demand, the concentration of sourcing, combined with a less than optimal domestic production base, leaves Bangladesh exposed.
As one expert put it: “The growing scale of import dependence for everyday consumer items must not become the new normal. It should trigger action - in agriculture, logistics, trade policy and industrial strategy.” The challenge before Bangladesh is clear: build domestic production capacity, diversify sourcing, and manage import reliance so that it remains strategic - not structural. If unchecked, the current trajectory could weaken the country’s self reliance, inflate import bills and erode food system resilience.
